Analysis of climate variability and dengue occurrence in social-ecological systems: the case of Bay, Los Baños and Calamba in Laguna, the Philippines
Dengue has been recognized as a global hazard by the public health community as millions of people are at risk of dengue infection and a tetravalent vaccine for cure is to be developed. Given the disease’s impact to the social-ecological systems, the influence of climate variability to the occurrence of dengue was analyzed in three areas within Laguna – the municipalities of Bay and Los Baños and the city of Calamba. In all areas, the increase in dengue cases is generally observed starting June, and the rise in number usually extend up to two months. Results show that disease-climate variability (rainfall, relative humidity and maximum temperature) is statistically significant; the occurrence of dengue is associated with climatic variables. Specifically, it was observed that dengue is strongly to very strongly associate with rainfall in all the areas for the month of August. The months of April and October yielded strong to very strong significant association in Bay, strong and very strong association for June and March in Calamba. A very strong association was observed in April for Los Baños. In addition, dengue is very strongly associated with relative humidity and has strong and negative relationship with maximum temperature during April for Los Baños. The Disease-October correlation for Calamba City is negatively significant. It was also noted that the association of dengue to maximum temperature is an important finding as the general public usually relates this disease to rainfall only. The variations in the time and strength of association among the study areas show that the occurrence of dengue maybe influenced by multiple climate variables. This implies that the preventive measures should take into account climate services, and dengue surveillance, and allocation of resources on capacitation of human resources. These measures can facilitate better mainstreaming of climate change adaptation at the local level.
Published by: nternational Journal of Sciences: Basic and Applied Research, 21(1) , 2015 |
Page Nos: 350-367
Type of Publication: Journal Article