The University of the Philippines (UP) Resilience Institute (UP RI) – Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (NOAH) Center presented the findings of preliminary, exploratory research about climate change-induced migration in the recently concluded International Conference: Big Data for Disaster Response and Management in Asia and the Pacific held in Sendai, Japan on February 15-17, 2024. This conference was made possible through the efforts of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Japan Fund for Prosperous and Resilient Asia and the Pacific (JFPR), From the People of Japan (Japanese Aid), Tohoku University – International Research Institute of Disaster Science (IRIDeS), Association of Pacific Rim Universities (APRU) Multi-Hazards Program, and Victoria University of Wellington (New Zealand).
The Philippines is one of the countries clustered in Asia and the Pacific that has experienced increasing intensity and frequency of extreme weather events in the past decades. The conference focuses on the use of big data in improving disaster management emphasizing the idea that decisions should not only be timely but also evidence-based. Assessments and other impact-related analyses of disasters on both the social and economic aspects of the affected units help obtain better and more effective disaster response and management capabilities. Research studies included in this conference try to assess the impact of disasters on different components of the economy and follow the general trend of combining traditional datasets from censuses and other surveys with some of the latest non-traditional datasets that may include remotely sensed data and other relevant spatial data, location data, and crowd-sourced data.
Mr. Bradley Mellicker, an Emergency Response Specialist from the United Nations (UN) Migration Agency – International Organisation for Migration (IOM), and Ms. Patricia Anne Delmendo, a Supervising Science Research Specialist from UP RI – NOAH Center conducted the presentation of the study, Foresight in the Context of Climate Displacement in Asia and the Pacific: Climate Displacement Risk Index (CDRI). It centers on the rise of climate change-induced displacement from slow-onset events. With the potential displacement of up to 88.9 million people across the region by 2050 during a worst-case scenario, UN – IOM launched an initiative to improve the understanding of the future impacts of climate change on migration and displacement in Asia and the Pacific. The UN – IOM collaborated with UP RI – UP NOAH Center to increase resilience against climate-induced displacement and proactively manage associated loss and damage. This initiative has the objectives to prevent and manage future displacement, address integration challenges for those who are already displaced, create receptive ‘inmigration’ areas in case of future population influxes, and improve management of climate security risks by developing a predictive model that will help in anticipating future displacement risk. Furthermore, it seeks to utilize the data to serve as a strong basis for action to address gaps, increase preparedness, and prevent future displacement identified by the model.
The study also explores the use of the Climate Displacement Risk Index (CDRI). Development of the CDRI is built on a framework that considers not only hazards, but also other environmental factors as well as economic, political, social, and demographic ‘drivers’ of displacement. This development will allow the model to incorporate both spatial and non-spatial data, including big data and advanced analysis techniques, such as machine learning algorithms. UP RI has led preliminary work to support model development in the Philippines. Examining flood exposure, the pilot study calculates the number of individuals potentially affected by floods by intersecting simulated flood hazard data with the high-resolution settlement layer. With this, future development of this study may integrate additional datasets including those related to vulnerability and adaptive capacity, which will help in integrating additional drivers of displacement for a more comprehensive analysis.
The three-day international conference concluded its last day with a site visit at the Sendai Arahama Elementary School, the ruins of the Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami. The ruins, the abandoned buildings, and the uninhibited areas served as a reminder that while we are moving forward, it is always best to look behind and remember all the lessons we’ve learned along the way.
