Prospects of Green Growth Development as a Post-ECQ Stimulus Strategy
Economic slowdown is a key unintended consequence of the Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) as a policy response to the covid19 pandemic. The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) estimates a GDP decline ranging from 2.1 to 6.6%. The ECQ policy response of requiring citizens to stay at home consequently meant that they are prevented from reporting for work. Worse, daily wage earners, those from the informal sector, small and medium enterprises were badly hit as major economic activities went on lockdown, with the exception of highly vital sectors. In anticipation of addressing this economic slowdown presumably after either the lifting of the ECQ coupled with the imposition of a modified GCQ, Congress is preparing an economic stimulus package to revitalize a covid19-ravaged Philippines, albeit under a new normal. In addition, the Duterte administration also has instituted a Balik Probinsya Program to encourage migration of the urban poor from Metro Manila back to the rural areas, presumably the places of their origin. This early however, certain sectors have criticized the Balik Probinsya Program for lack of an enabling environment that provides economic opportunities or means of livelihood, and related support programs for targeted rural returnees.
The upcoming stimulus package and economic revitalization expectedly will be under a new normal, providing an opportunity to study the prospect of green growth development as one of the strategies focusing on rural development. After all, sustainable and clean development in relation with climate mitigation are part of resilience measures, mitigation being known as a pillar of climate actions. The purpose of this study is to look at the prospects of green growth development in rural areas, as a component of the post-ECQ economic stimulus strategy.
1st Phase: A rapid review of current and existing national programs linked to green growth development shall be conducted. In addition, sectoral mitigation potential shall be rapidly assessed presuming data from government agencies are made available. In addition, potential sources for climate mitigation financing within the public financial system shall be assessed. The Balik Probinsya Program shall also be reviewed with respect to its program components, framework and implementing mechanisms.
2nd Phase: A gap analysis shall be conducted following the rapid review, where challenges, issues and barriers to initial implementation shall be surfaced. In addition, the potential for initial convergence especially from the perspective of the 2 pilot Balik Probinsya provinces, shall be assessed. Data gathering shall be thru key informant interviews and online exchanges, including the possible versions of the stimulus bill. Key strategies shall then be recommended on how to maximize program impacts, especially in relation with the potential passage of the stimulus law
3rd Phase: All the above components shall then be consolidated in one paper, to be published and printed for dissemination by UPRI.
– Conduct a rapid review and assessment of green growth related programs of government as a climate mitigation strategy; and,
– Determine its potential for success as part of economic revitalization/stimulus program after the lifting of the ECQ.
Rapid Review of Green Growth-related National Programs
A rapid review of existing green growth-related national strategies and programs shall be conducted, especially those related to agricultural development as a central sector. Sectoral mitigation potential shall be rapidly assessed, based on available data. Government agencies and GOCCs providing climate mitigation financing shall be surveyed, especially if funding windows can be accessed in conjunction with the Balik Probinsya Program implementing mechanisms.
Gap Analysis and Potential for Convergence Study
Building on the above review, a gap analysis shall follow. The potential for initial convergence across national programs in the initially identified 2 pilot Balik Probinsya provinces, shall be assessed. Prospects for convergence or harmonization with the upcoming stimulus package, based on the available legislative bill, shall be studied.
Final Writing, Publication and Printing
This last component shall involve the finalization of the paper for submission to UPRI, which in turn shall publish, print and disseminate the same.