Dr. Alfredo Mahar Lagmay poses as the keynote speaker at the “Future-Proofing the Philippines: Bolstering Climate Resilience and Community Readiness” business forum
organized by the Yuchengco Group of Companies (YGC).
(Photo courtesy of WSP Incorporated)
Dr. Alfredo Mahar Lagmay, Executive Director of the University of the Philippines Resilience Institute (UPRI), was invited as a keynote speaker at the “Future-Proofing the Philippines: Bolstering Climate Resilience and Community Readiness” business forum organized by the Yuchengco Group of Companies (YGC) last August 29, 2024, to talk about Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction (CCA-DRR). Dr. Lagmay begins with a warning about how climate change is not only real but also going to become worse in the coming years, that is why adapting to it will be most important. The change in climate occurs gradually, because of this it is important to study at least 30 years worth of historical data to see long-term trends in climate change. He then cited that over the past 40 years, with records of empirical data, the global temperature has increased by at least 1 degree Celsius, and this is a direct evidence showing that the globe is getting warmer. It is not just the atmosphere that is getting warmer but also the oceans, which creates the conditions for tropical cyclones to form. The recent Typhoon Carina had a rain return event that is only seen once every 100 years, while Typhoon Ondoy is seen once every 180 years, but due to climate change, these events are occurring more often than they historically have before. The frequency has increased to an Ondoy-level event occurring once every 10 years or less.
Dr. Alfredo Mahar Lagmay talks about Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction (CCA-DRR) to representatives of the Yuchengco Group of Companies (YGC).
(Photo courtesy of WSP Incorporated)
In light of climate change discussions, it is important that the people mitigate and adapt to it. Mitigation is explained as making the impacts of climate change less severe through reduction in carbon emissions (e.g. burning of fossil fuels, greenhouse gases (GHG)) into the atmosphere. On the other hand, Adaptation is to anticipate the adverse effects of climate change and taking appropriate action to prevent or minimize the damage it may cause. However, the Philippines only contributes less than 1% to global carbon emissions and yet suffers more heavily from its effects compared to the biggest producers of carbon dioxide, due to the country’s proximity to the typhoon belt. Mitigation must be pursued on a global scale, while adaptation serves as our response to climate change, helping us manage its impacts. This response is closely intertwined with Disaster Risk Reduction, though it is emphasized that mitigation will be the most critical.
Dr. Alfredo Mahar Lagmay shares an in-depth discussion on recent hazard scenarios that have impacted the country brought by climate change.
(Photo courtesy of WSP Incorporated)
An important step that must be taken into account as an anticipatory action to avoid natural hazards is prevention and mitigation. Dr. Lagmay suggested to know one’s hazard, by utilizing the NOAH website. The website features hazard maps for Flood, Landslide, and Storm Surges, to name a few, that indicates if a particular house, building, and property is in a dangerous area. Community planning was mentioned as the quintessential anticipatory action, with more than 30 adaptation plans for each LGUs in the country as required by the government. He noted that if published adaptation plans plans are not risk-informed and science-based, then hazards are for certain in land development projects. Dr. Lagmay mentioned that the country did not learn from the impacts of Typhoon Yolanda, with current plans utilizing the same hazard maps that have shown to be no longer accurate. These maps called as deterministic maps, are still based on historical record, single-scenario, worst-case hazard maps that does not account for the changing climate. He mentioned that what was needed before the impact of Typhoon Yolanda were probabilistic multi-scenario hazard maps. If these kinds of hazard maps were used, then actions taken could have been much better. This is why it is important to invest in probabilistic risk assessment, to produce more accurate maps than the underestimated historical, single-scenario hazard maps currently being used.
Dr. Alfredo Mahar Lagmay shares a conversation with Ms. Helen Yuchengco Dee, Chairperson of the Yuchengco Group of Companies (YGC).
(Photo courtesy of WSP Incorporated)
Dr. Lagmay put out a question if it is important to use probabilistic hazard maps, is it a program of the government, and then he answered the question that is highly suggested to use these kinds of hazard maps because it is included Philippine Development Plan (PDP) 2017-2022 and PDP 2023-2028. It is also mentioned in the Climate Change Commission (CCC) Resolution No. 2019-001, to utilize probabilistic risk assessment, and UN-DRR Words into Action Guidelines that highlights probabilities, so one can know the risks. Consequences in not implementing the suggested plans toward climate change and disaster impacts may result into dangerous effects with focus on failure to anticipate such impacts and failure to make adaptation plans and measures. Dr. Lagmay noted that adaptation plans should not be limited to evacuations centers, the plans should cut across all sectors including Agriculture, Coastal, Water, and Health, to name a few. With this, it tells the community on what needs to be done; consulting scientists on their expertise on the matter.
Dr. Alfredo Mahar Lagmay in talks with Mr. Eugene Acevedo, President and CEO of RCBC.
(Photo courtesy of WSP Incorporated)
Dr. Lagmay highlighted that private sectors role in disaster risk reduction is to provide financial resources and expertise in DRR and climate change as well. The private sectors can also help LGUs, where businesses are established, to craft their Comprehensive Land Use and Development Plans and ensure understanding towards climate change and sectoral plans are crafted using probabilistic hazard maps. Otherwise, it is not called climate change adaptation. Dr. Lagmay reiterated to utilize probabilistic hazard maps, informing the community and planning well with the LGU and stakeholders according to their vision with participation from private groups, and ecosystem-based adaptations, through asset protection and damage cost avoidance from the banking sector can all be tools in adapting and mitigating the effects of climate change. Dr. Lagmay’s ended his talk with a call to action. A call to act now regarding impacts brought by climate change. Upon seeing the updated data, specifically on Global Temperature indicating that it reached to an alarming 1.4 degrees Celsius, Dr. Lagmay urges everyone to act now and limit global temperature by 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2023 as settled in The Paris Agreement. He advocated for climate scientists to be heard and seen, as when the planet reaches its tipping point, there is no going back.
Panel members with host answers questions that tackle topics on climate change, banking and insurance, the academe, as well as energy security.
(from left to right) Ms. Michelle (Mimi) Ong (Business News Correspondent and Presenter, ABS-CBN News),
Mr. Juan Gabriel Tomas (Chief Risk Officer/Head, Risk Management Group of RCBC), Dr. Dodjie Maestrecampo (President and CEO of Mapúa University),
Dr. Alfredo Mahar Lagmay (Executive Director of UP Resilience Institute), Atty. Arlan P. Profeta (Senior Vice President for Corporate Services for PetroEnergy Resources Corporation (PERC)),
Mr. Isauro Cotoco Jr. (Senior Vice President and Chief Sales Officer of Malayan Insurance Company), and Ms. Joy Castillo (Sun Life Grepa Financial, Inc. Chief Operating Officer)
(Photo courtesy of WSP Incorporated)
Dr. Alfredo Mahar Lagmay poses for a group photo with YGC representatives headed by Ms. Helen Yuchengco Dee, Chairperson of the Yuchengco Group of Companies (YGC).
(Photo courtesy of WSP Incorporated)