Philippine climate scientist challenges century-old climate map with new five-zone classification. In the 118th episode of the Behind the Science podcast, Dr. Lyndon Mark P. Olaguera of Ateneo de Manila University and the Manila Observatory discusses a suggestion on how we divide the Philippines into climate zones—this time using both rainfall and temperature instead of rainfall alone. A Bicol native who experienced catastrophic typhoons growing up, Dr. Olaguera traces his journey from BS Applied Physics in UPLB to a PhD in Japan, and how these experiences led him to focus on Philippine rainfall variability, monsoon dynamics, and extreme weather events.
His recent paper, “Rainfall and temperature-based Philippine climate zones using Self-Organizing Maps,” revisits the classic Coronas and modified Coronas classifications that have guided planning and research for decades. Using the APHRODITE gridded dataset (1979–2015), he applies a two-phase clustering approach—Self-Organizing Maps followed by hierarchical clustering—to group grid cells based on pentad-scale rainfall and temperature patterns. The result: five distinct climate types for the Philippines, including a high-elevation cluster that links Baguio with elevated areas in Mindoro, Bukidnon, and parts of Davao, which do not stand out in rainfall-only schemes.
Dr. Olaguera explains why refining climate zones matters on the ground: cropping calendars, disaster preparedness, and adaptation programs are all tuned to expected seasonal rainfall and temperature in each area. By incorporating temperature into the analysis, the study captures climate-change-driven shifts that may not be visible in rainfall alone, supporting more responsive planning for agriculture and risk reduction. He also highlights how they validated the new classification against PAGASA station data and statistical tests to ensure that each climate type is physically distinct and not just an artifact of the algorithm.
Beyond this study, the episode also delves into ongoing work at the Manila Observatory and Ateneo on pattern-recognition methods for heavy rainfall and shear line-related events, and on expanding international collaborations—including a fellowship and student exchange framework with Yokohama National University’s International Workshop on Typhoon Science and Technology Research Conference in Japan. Dr. Olaguera and host Dr. Paul Flores concluded by encouraging young researchers to “challenge the traditional norm” in Philippine climate science, whether through exploring emerging approaches in atmospheric science and climate modeling through Ateneo’s MS in Atmospheric Science program.
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Research Spotlight:
Olaguera LMP, Badua EK, Llorin AGA, Cruz FAT, Villarin JRT, Manalo JA, Villafuerte MQ II, Matsumoto J. 2025. Rainfall and temperature-based Philippine climate zones using Self-Organizing Maps. Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere. 21C:10–20. https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.21C-002