On the 84th episode of the Behind the Science Podcast series, we unpacked the situation of the building construction industry in the aftermath of disasters. Dr. Harold Aquino, a researcher who specializes in Civil Engineering, shared the impacts of the Canterbury and Kaikoura Earthquakes in New Zealand to the country’s construction sector. Using a scenario-based modelling framework called counterfactual analysis, Dr. Aquino examined the situation of construction sites in these localities if disasters had not happened and used the data to compare and verify the accuracy of actual damage data during the post-Earthquake events.
Disasters caused by earthquakes offer two different scenarios for the construction industry. While they can decrease the likelihood of immediate progression in its day-to-day operations, they also provide “opportunities” to revive themselves as demand for infrastructural project development due to building losses increases with time. With these said, Dr. Aquino in his research titled, “Evaluating the impacts of earthquake disasters on the building construction sector: a SARIMA-based counterfactual analysis“, attempted to understand the disaster mitigation efforts being applied to construction activities in a post-disaster situation. From simply gauging in the types of damages brought by earthquakes, the methodology shifted to quantifying the exact measurements of the disaster’s effects to the sites, in the effort to isolate and determine the effectiveness (or lack thereof) of disaster management measures integrated in the construction activities.
Citing the traditional way of the Philippines’ means of covering the effects of storms as an example, Dr. Aquino posited that reports only cover what the damages are without accounting for the exact measurements of mitigation efforts applied to minimize disaster risks. According to Dr. Aquino, this situation calls for re-imagining the assessment of disaster impacts on the construction industry. He stated the importance of the counterfactual analysis to also forecast how future disasters might affect the industry emphasizing the need to quantify the damages—not merely describing them.
In the episode, we also learned how Dr. Aquino rose to becoming the scientist he is now. He shared how his passion and pursuit of the Civil Engineering track was inspired by his father’s then real-estate business. He appreciated how his skills in cost accounting, structural design, and construction management were strengthened by having been exposed to his father’s construction gigs. He saw that as an opportunity to involve himself in studying the research behind the construction sites’ project development.
The episode wrapped up with a message from Dr. Aquino to aspiring academic researchers and those who want to advance their professional careers. In spite of the challenging demands of writing research, he noted the importance of mentorship and persistence as pillars of research success. Most especially in a heavily objective-driven subject such as evaluation of disaster management, he encouraged everyone to find supportive advisers and to keep their motivations intact.
Youtube: bit.ly/btspodcast-yt
Spotify: bit.ly/btspodcast-spotify
Facebook: https://bit.ly/btspodcast-fb
Research Spotlight:
Aquino, D. H. M., Domingo, N. D., & Atapattu, C. (2025). Evaluating the impacts of earthquake disasters on the building construction sector: a SARIMA-based counterfactual analysis. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 105695. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420925005199
Do you want to nominate a scientist in the field of DRR and geosciences to be featured on the Behind the Science Podcast? Or, have you read an author’s publication whose behind-the-scenes story you are eager to hear about? Email us at upri.educ@up.edu.ph, and we will do our best to feature them on the BTS Podcast!