By Flordeliz A. Agra, UPRI Education
Dr. Diocel Harold M. Aquino, a Fellow of the UP Resilience Institute and faculty member at Massey University in New Zealand, presented an insightful lecture entitled “Structures, Lives, and Systems: Valuing Resilience in the Built Environment” to an audience comprised of students, faculty, and professionals at the College of Science on 9 July 2025 at the College of Science Admin Auditorium.
In his talk, Dr. Aquino highlighted the Philippines’ significant exposure to natural hazards, noting the nation’s precarious geographic location along the Pacific Ring of Fire and within the typhoon belt. He emphasised that this positioning renders Filipinos particularly susceptible to frequent earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and as many as 21 tropical cyclones each year.
Vulnerability Curves
Central to his talk was the concept of the Vulnerability Curve — a scientific tool used to estimate probable damage to structures at various hazard intensities. Developed from empirical data, simulation models, and expert knowledge, these curves are crucial for disaster preparedness, emergency response, insurance planning, and funding decisions. He stressed that there are old buildings in Metro Manila requiring our attention, and building resilience of the built environment is a must, and the use of vulnerability curve is useful in this part, especially what can be prioritized. The vulnerability curve helps us answer hard questions rationally—which structure should we save first and why? How do we value structural performance enhancement? How do we put value on resilience and safety? Which one has the best value for money? Which one has a return for every peso spent?
Valuing Life with Numbers
Dr. Diocel Harold “Doc H” Aquino highlighted the severe overcrowding in Metro Manila’s schools and hospitals, warning that aging buildings and high population density make the city especially vulnerable to disasters. In public schools, up to 50 students share a classroom—about one square meter per person. Some hospitals are even more cramped, with just 0.2 square meters per patient, increasing casualty risks in emergencies.
To address this, Dr. Aquino introduced the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL), a measure used to estimate the economic benefit of reducing risks to human life—valued in the Philippines at ₱34 million per person. This approach, he explained, helps policymakers decide where investments will save the most lives. Retrofitting schools, for example, not only protects students from earthquakes and floods but also ensures education can continue after disasters. With the Department of Education’s ₱900-billion annual budget—just ₱187.50 per student each day—even small, targeted allocations could yield major safety gains.
Leveraging Technology for Safer Futures
In the second half of his talk, Dr. Aquino explored the intersection of engineering and artificial intelligence. He described research projects he did in UP during the pandemic where he and one of his student uses AI and image recognition models to assess building vulnerability from photos like the Google Street View for remote visual inspection “During the pandemic, we couldn’t send people to inspect buildings—but we had Google Street View. That inspired us to teach AI how to ‘see’ what engineers would see,” he explained. Google Street View inspection should be good enough for conducting macro analysis. It uses Convolutional Neural Networks that detect features like symmetry, floor count, and structural irregularities.
At Massey University, his research includes the use of robotic dogs for inspection and damage assessment, especially in areas unsafe for human entry. However, they cannot be used for post-disaster damage assessment because they sometimes fall and still need AI detection algorithm enhancements.
He noted that while these technologies are still developing, they offer enormous promise for faster, safer, and more accurate assessments—especially in urban settings where in-person inspections are time-consuming or unsafe.
During the open forum, discussions with representatives from Department of Education (DepEd) highlighted real-world applications of vulnerability curves in planning school retrofits and estimating budget needs for disaster risk reduction as it estimates damage and cost at the building level to inform budget proposals submitted to Department of Budget and Management (DBM) and Department of Finance (DOF). Doc H also answers questions regarding the existing of vulnerability curve for Wind, earthquake and flood in the country based on 1991 values. Lastly, he stressed that vulnerability curve are not use for individual building for portfolio level analysis.
