Did Project NOAH help save lives? Episode 137 of the Behind the Science Podcast explores this question with Mr. Jude Vito Custodio Agapito, Assistant Professor at UP Diliman’s Department of Industrial Engineering.
The episode features the study “Counterfactual evidence on the impacts of operations research on Philippine disaster risk reduction efforts.” The paper examines whether integrating operations research through Project NOAH (Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards) into the government’s disaster risk reduction and management system affected disaster outcomes.
Agapito describes industrial engineers as professionals who design, optimize, and improve systems involving people, processes, information, and technologies. Wanting to work in public service, he began his career reviewing frontline processes at the Social Security System. After two years, he was recruited by Alfredo Mahar Lagmay to join the UP Resilience Institute (UPRI), where he encountered the complexity and urgency of disaster risk reduction.
Operations research uses scientific, analytical, and mathematical methods to support decisions in complex systems. Through Project NOAH, it brought together hazard maps, forecasts, sensor data, Web-GIS, and scientific monitoring to help the government identify at-risk communities and provide hazard-specific, area-focused, and time-bound warnings.
To assess its impact, the researchers used counterfactual analysis, which examines what might have happened had an intervention not taken place. They compared hydrometeorological disaster data from 1986 to 2013 with data from 2014 to 2024, after Project NOAH had been embedded in the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council’s Pre-Disaster Risk Assessment system.
The study found that average annual fatalities decreased from 1,253 before 2014 to about 295 afterward: a reduction of approximately 76 percent. Even without Super Typhoon Yolanda, treated as an exceptional “black swan” event, the earlier average remained much higher at 1,021 deaths per year. Disaster-related damages did not show a comparable decline, indicating that destructive hazard events continued to occur.
The researchers estimated that more than 7,000 lives may have been saved over the last decade. However, they do not attribute the decline to Project NOAH alone. Evacuation infrastructure, local preparedness, policy reforms, and other developments also influenced disaster outcomes. Their conclusion is that operations research, as implemented through Project NOAH, was at least partially responsible for the reduction in fatalities.
For aspiring researchers, Agapito emphasized learning from good mentors and colleagues. His practical advice, echoing Lagmay’s encouragement, was simple: “Tapusin niyo at ipasa niyo na.” Peer review, he explained, can provide the comments needed to improve a paper.
Learn more about how industrial engineering, disaster science, and government decision-making came together through Project NOAH. The Behind the Science Podcast is in partnership with the UP Resilience Institute.
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Research spotlight:
Agapito JVC, Rosales RML, Pascual AC, Concepcion CR, Lagmay AMFA. 2026. Counterfactual evidence on the impacts of operations research on Philippine disaster risk reduction efforts. Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal. 35(6):44–63. DOI: 10.1108/DPM-04-2025-0127
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